BEHOLD! THE GREAT DISRUPTION
“One of those who has been warning me of [a coming crisis] for a long time is Paul Gilding, the Australian environmental business expert. He has a name for this moment – when both Mother Nature and Father Greed have hit the wall at once – ‘The Great Disruption’. ” - Thomas Friedman in the New York Times
The time for worrying about climate change has come and gone, says Australian environmentalist Paul Gilding.
Instead – just like passengers on a plane headed for inevitable collision – we should brace for impact.
Now comes “The Great Disruption”.
The latest United Nations report on the health of our planet says the outlook is “grim”. Released last week, the report is the result of three years work by 300 scientists.
A few facts:
- 20 percent of the earth’s vertebrae species are under threat of extinction.
- Coral reefs have declined by 38 percent since 1980.
- Greenhouse gas emissions are on track to double over the next 50 years.
- 90 percent of water and fish samples are contaminated by pesticides.
- Little or no progress has been made over the past five years on nearly a third of the main environmental goals, including global warming.
Summing up, the UN report says that several critical global, regional and local thresholds are close or have been exceeded: ”Abrupt and possibly irreversible changes to the life-support functions of the planet are likely to occur.”
And that is exactly the thesis of Paul Gilding’s 2011 book The Great Disruption.
It’s been called the most important environmental book in decades. “Essential reading.”
The result of our living beyond the planet’s means will cause immense loss, suffering and global conflict, says Gilding. We will have come to the end of Economic Growth, Version 1.0.
However, he also believes that these environmental challenges will bring out the best humanity can offer: compassion, innovation, resilience, and adaptability.
He writes:
“Why didn’t more of us see it coming? After all, the signals have been clear enough – signals that the ecological system that supports human society is hitting its limits, groaning under the strain of an economy simply too big for the planet. But we didn’t and, as a result, the time to act preventatively has passed.
Now we must brace for impact. Now comes The Great Disruption.
It is true that the coming years won’t be pleasant, as our society and economy hits the wall and then realigns around what was always an obvious reality: You cannot have infinite growth on a finite planet. Not ‘should not’, or ‘better not’, but cannot.
We can, however, get through what’s ahead – if we prepare… not only can we make it through, we can come out the other side in better shape.
Taking all this together, we can now say with a high degree of certainty that change is going to start coming thick and fast. Change in our economy, in our politics, and in our lives.
Change that will be challenging, but that will ultimately lead us to a better place.”
Gilding says the impending crisis represents a rare chance to replace our addiction to growth with an ethic of sustainability, and it’s already happening.
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9 Responses to this article
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Kath June 13, 2012
Any discussion about how to face future challenges is doomed before it starts unless we are prepared to include population control in the discussion. It’s time for a mature debate about population control alongside all of the other discussion. It can no longer be ignored.
It won’t be an easy discussion, but trying to please all of the people all of the time is having a detrimental effect on the environment. What is sustainable? What is reasonable? Hard questions with, I suspect, answers that a lot of us may find more than a little uncomfortable.
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the*sparrow June 13, 2012
I have read Paul Gilding’s book “The Great Disruption” and it makes for very sobering reading indeed. It is a life changing read and I highly recommend it. I think he is right, and since reading it I cannot help but question the economic model of ‘growth is good’. This cannot last, we are in for a huge shake up when we run hard up against the worlds limits – if we have not done so already. Paul is quite optimistic about humanity’s ability to deal with this crisis, I am not so sure. I think it is too big for us to see – if you know what I mean.
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allikat June 13, 2012
I am absolutely gobsmacked yet again by the interests of Hoopla readers – 3 responses from readers about Gildings book- this 1 being me without children to worry about what enviromental legacy I leave but caring and attempting to minimise my households footprint and 117 responses to the latest Azaria decision and whether Wendy Harmer has done the right thing by apologising today!
Go figure…….
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Eddie June 13, 2012
I agree about the lack of comments, but am struggling with content for a comment of my own. I have one child, another on the way and do feel immense sadness for the way they will live and what they will see in their lives.
I’m optimistic about the challenges they will have. I hope they don’t succumb to the blinding life commercial media wants us to live. I’ll try hard to open their eyes, and give them courage to live appropriately.
Whilst trying to continually do so myself….. Not easy.
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Louisa June 13, 2012
This book is going to be my next read. I normally find this topic too scary to confront and end up feeling helpless. It sounds like this book might offer some hope.
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Mez June 14, 2012
Climate change is the greatest hoax of all time.
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Doug Evans June 17, 2012
Paul Gilding’s book is a good read and his analysis is accurate up to a point but before you take comfort from his hopeful message that we will make a last minute U-turn and save the day consider this.
1. When the greenhouse gases that aren’t CO2 are counted in the world is ALREADY PAST the magic 450ppm thresh-hold that was supposed to give us a 50% CHANCE of stabilizing global warming at 2ºC. This is the concentration beyond which uncontrollable climate change becomes a probability.
2. When the atmospheric greenhouse gas burden consistent with halting global warming by 2030 is divided by the world’s population is divided by the world’s population we get an individual allocation of greenhouse gas that can be generated if we hope to halt global warming at the ‘safe’ +2ºC threshold. When this is multiplied by the population of a country we get a NATIONAL allocation. Australia exceeded its NATIONAL allocation in 2007! TWENTY THREE YEARS AHEAD OF TIME! Viewed in this light we are already carbon debtors soaking up the allocation of the world’s poorest nations to sustain our destructive lifestyle.
3. We are planning a gigantic expansion in our contribution to global coal consumption that will make us larger exporter of greenhouse gas emissions than Saudi Arabia. With the world already past the safe greenhouse gas limits and Australia already sponging up the emissions that are supposed to underpin a a modicum of development for the world’s poorest nations we are intending to throw a bucket of kerosene on the global barbecue.
None of the above is ‘warmist alarmism’ just well known, widely accepted scientific fact that somehow doesn’t get much of an airing in the mainstream media.
If you give a damn about your kids’ futures inform yourselves. Then get out there and beat down your local member’s office door, shout the message at him/her and keep it up until we get effective action across the board. Without this the battle is already lost.
